What will happen next? I would assume that much depends, as it did in China in 1989, on what the military is willing to do.Noah Millman makes that comment above, in a post that is definitely worth reading in its entirety.
What ultimately happens in Iran will depend on what the various security forces - the police and military most crucially - decide to do. If the Iranian government loses the support of one but not the other, I would suggest that civil war is definitely possible (although not necessarily probable). If it loses the support of both, the Iranian regime will certainly fall.
There are a number of more probable scenarios that are short of regime change or civil war. If it becomes clear to the Iranian regime that the military or police are wavering there may be movement: throwing Ahmadinejad to the wolves or a simple rerun of the election. Either way, it will say something about the regime and its relation to Iranian society.
h/t Sullivan
UPDATE:
According to the Cyrus News Agency, Tuesday morning 16 senior members of Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps were arrested. "These commanders have been in contact with members of the Iranian army to join the people's movement," CNA reports. "Three of the commanders are veterans of Iran-Iraq war. They have been moved to an undisclosed location in East Tehran." - Robbins via Sullivan
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