Disconnect

There's an interesting disconnect going on right now that I'd like to talk about. On the one hand, what's going on in Ottawa sure feels like the lead up an election. On the other hand, I get absolutely no feeling that any party - least of all the Liberals - are warming up their election machines.

Now, by no means am I a Liberal party insider, but I do think that I'm well enough connected into the party that if the big red machine was starting to spin up its gears, I'd get some sense of it. God knows, I was aware of every single one of the false starts during the Dion days (it seemed we were always "weeks away" from an election). I've heard it mentioned by a few CBC pundits that there has been none of the pre-writ bravado and chest thumping as the parties show off the planes they're leasing, the star candidates they're recruiting or their amazing, state of the art, bunker like, massive war rooms.

On the "ground," the story is much the same. As a VP of my Electoral District Association, I've heard no call to nominate candidates, start finding a HQ, brush off the signs, or complete any of the other myriad pre-writ tasks.

Perhaps, though, we in the grass roots simply didn't get the memo, because the climate in Ottawa certainly looks like the lead up to an election. The dramatic "theme" of the Liberal Question Period performance today was "confidence confidence confidence" (or lack thereof... in Jim Flaherty). By way of illustration, Ignatieff asked:

“how can the Prime Minister or any other Canadian still have confidence in the minister of finance?”

Following the Question Period, our fearless leader stood just beyond the green carpet and told the country that it was becoming harder and harder to support the government. And grit girl is back:



It sure feels like the parties, especially the Liberals are on the path to war.

But then we return to the grass roots, which stand calm and undisturbed by the storm in Ottawa. What are we to make of all this? Well Calgary Grit wonders if the Liberals aren't painting themselves into a corner where they will be forced to vote against the government. I wonder the same thing, but I also wonder if this might not be intentional. No one needs to be reminded of what Dion's constant peek-a-boo game with non-confidence did to the party's image, not to mention the membership's morale. There's no question that the party has been hurt by serving as the official opposition while simultaneously (tacitly) supporting the government. This has left the NDP and the BQ free to vote against the government, all while railing against those dirty scumbag liberals for supporting the likes of Harper.

Perhaps this is the end of the line for the BQ and the NDP. The Liberals have their brushes out and are busily painting themselves into a corner where they will be forced to vote against the government. If the NDP and the BQ don't want an election, one of them is going to have to blink. Perhaps the reason why the leadership of the Liberals hasn't felt the need to spin up the big red machine, despite the fiery rhetoric, is because they are counting on the third or fourth party to blink. Maybe the storm clouds and the thunder aren't indicating an election, but instead a re-alignment of the parliamentary dynamic.